|Category||Prediction Rate||% Correct||Notes|
|Direction||19/26||73%||21/26 disregarding minor closing range|
(losses were 0.30%, 0.65%, 0.20%, 0.22%, -0.85% gains could have been made on 2 of those days)
|Hypothetical Portfolio||Starting Date||Compounded Return|
|$10,000 starting balance||11/18/2010||+1.38%||$10,138 balance, profits are reinvested|
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.
Here are Monday's odds. I didn't take a trade at the close today because I was on the road, but based on this, I probably wouldn't have anyway. The market is whipsawing back and forth. No tradeable edge yet. I would tend to side with the bearish case in general though. The bulls failed to reverse the trend the past few sessions.