Category | Prediction Rate | % Correct | Notes |
Direction | 19/26 | 73% | 21/26 disregarding minor closing range (losses were 0.30%, 0.65%, 0.20%, 0.22%, -0.85% gains could have been made on 2 of those days) |
Significant High/Low* | 1/2 | 50% | |
Gap Fill+ | 1/1 | 100% | |
Hypothetical Portfolio | Starting Date | Compounded Return | |
$10,000 starting balance | 11/18/2010 | +1.38% | $10,138 balance, profits are reinvested |
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.
Here are Monday's odds. I didn't take a trade at the close today because I was on the road, but based on this, I probably wouldn't have anyway. The market is whipsawing back and forth. No tradeable edge yet. I would tend to side with the bearish case in general though. The bulls failed to reverse the trend the past few sessions.
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