Friday, November 26, 2010

Odds for the Dow on 11/26/2010

Category Prediction Rate % Correct Notes
Direction 19/25 76% 21/25 disregarding minor closing range
(losses were 0.30%, 0.65%, 0.20%, 0.22% gains could have been made on 2 of those days)
Significant High/Low* 1/1 100%
Gap Fill+ 1/1 100%
Hypothetical Portfolio Starting Date Compounded Return
$10,000 starting balance 11/18/2010 +1.38% $10,138 balance, profits are reinvested
* A significant high/low occurs when the market makes a move greater than 0.5%. This test is measuring the following case: If the odds of a significant high/low are >= 72% in either direction, a significant high/low was made the following day.
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.

This was the table as of Wednesday. Posting it for the record. I didn't take a trade because the range was inconclusive.

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