|Category||Prediction Rate||% Correct||Notes|
|Direction||20/27||74%||22/27 disregarding minor closing range|
(losses were 0.30%, 0.65%, 0.20%, 0.22%, -0.85% gains could have been made on 2 of those days)
|Hypothetical Portfolio||Starting Date||Compounded Return|
|$10,000 starting balance||11/18/2010||+1.38%||$10,138 balance, profits are reinvested|
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.
Today was another success as the samples approach the all-important 30 sample size statisticians like so much. It appears the success rate is holding above 70% and above 85% if you count days where it would have been easy to make money trading with the system. All is well for this system being significantly better than a coin flip. However, tomorrow the odds are 50/50, so again, I won't take the trade. I feel bad for people trying to guess this market when it keeps whipsawing. I've been more than happy to sit on the sidelines until these odds show a clear edge. I will say that this chart looks a little more bullish than bearish considering the two most frequent ranges were positive.