Monday, November 29, 2010

Odds for the Dow on 11/30/2010

Category Prediction Rate % Correct Notes
Direction 20/27 74% 22/27 disregarding minor closing range
(losses were 0.30%, 0.65%, 0.20%, 0.22%, -0.85% gains could have been made on 2 of those days)
Significant High/Low* 1/2 50%
Gap Fill+ 1/1 100%
Hypothetical Portfolio Starting Date Compounded Return
$10,000 starting balance 11/18/2010 +1.38% $10,138 balance, profits are reinvested
* A significant high/low occurs when the market makes a move greater than 0.5%. This test is measuring the following case: If the odds of a significant high/low are >= 72% in either direction, a significant high/low was made the following day.
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.

Today was another success as the samples approach the all-important 30 sample size statisticians like so much. It appears the success rate is holding above 70% and above 85% if you count days where it would have been easy to make money trading with the system. All is well for this system being significantly better than a coin flip. However, tomorrow the odds are 50/50, so again, I won't take the trade. I feel bad for people trying to guess this market when it keeps whipsawing. I've been more than happy to sit on the sidelines until these odds show a clear edge. I will say that this chart looks a little more bullish than bearish considering the two most frequent ranges were positive.

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