Monday, November 15, 2010

Odds for the Dow on 11/16/2010

Category Prediction Rate % Correct Notes
Direction 14/18 78% 16/18 disregarding minor closing range
(losses were 0.30% and 0.65%)
Range 10/18 56% 14/18 disregarding minor closing range
Significant High/Low* no instances

Next Day Gap** 3/5 60%
Gap Fill+ 1/1 100%
* A significant high/low occurs when the market makes a move greater than 0.5%. This test is measuring the following case: If the odds of a significant high/low are >= 70% in either direction, a significant high/low was made the following day.
** The next day gap determines if the condition correctly predicted the gap.The next day gap test is measuring times the odds of a positive low or negative high were >= 14%.
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.

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