Odds for the Dow on 11/16/2010

Category	Prediction Rate	% Correct	Notes
Direction	14/18	78%	16/18 disregarding minor closing range (losses were 0.30% and 0.65%)
Range	10/18	56%	14/18 disregarding minor closing range
Significant High/Low*	no instances
Next Day Gap**	3/5	60%
Gap Fill+	1/1	100%

* A significant high/low occurs when the market makes a move greater than 0.5%. This test is measuring the following case: If the odds of a significant high/low are >= 70% in either direction, a significant high/low was made the following day.
** The next day gap determines if the condition correctly predicted the gap.The next day gap test is measuring times the odds of a positive low or negative high were >= 14%.
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.