|Category||Prediction Rate||% Correct||Notes|
|Direction||13/17||76%||15/17 disregarding minor closing range|
(losses were 0.30% and 0.65%)
|Range||9/17||53%||13/17 disregarding minor closing range|
|Significant High/Low*||no instances|
|Next Day Gap**||3/5||60%|
** The next day gap determines if the condition correctly predicted the gap.The next day gap test is measuring times the odds of a positive low or negative high were >= 14%.
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.
- Since the odds of a negative high >= 14%, does the market gap down tomorrow? YES
Monday is the first toss-up. I would consider it a success if there is both up and down on Monday with a slightly positive close, since range is positive. Shorts might take profits on weakness or hedge on it. The 2 and 3 day outlook is bearish, so maybe the bears still have the edge here over the next few days.
Looks like interest in my site is also way down. I know there are a couple readers, but there will come a point when I might have to stop posting just because there isn't any interest. This was a good way to document my own results though and think through the testing.