Odds for the Dow on 11/15/2010

Category	Prediction Rate	% Correct	Notes
Direction	13/17	76%	15/17 disregarding minor closing range (losses were 0.30% and 0.65%)
Range	9/17	53%	13/17 disregarding minor closing range
Significant High/Low*	no instances
Next Day Gap**	3/5	60%
Gap Fill+	1/1	100%

* A significant high/low occurs when the market makes a move greater than 0.5%. This test is measuring the following case: If the odds of a significant high/low are >= 70% in either direction, a significant high/low was made the following day.
** The next day gap determines if the condition correctly predicted the gap.The next day gap test is measuring times the odds of a positive low or negative high were >= 14%.
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.

Tests:

• Since the odds of a negative high >= 14%, does the market gap down tomorrow? YES

Everything came in as expected today for a change. Looks like next week I'll be posting my presentation on this method. Even if the next 3 days fail, it will still be 75% accurate through 20 samples (based on what I have in the "Notes" section above, not the literal value), so it could be a trade-able system.

Monday is the first toss-up. I would consider it a success if there is both up and down on Monday with a slightly positive close, since range is positive. Shorts might take profits on weakness or hedge on it. The 2 and 3 day outlook is bearish, so maybe the bears still have the edge here over the next few days.

Looks like interest in my site is also way down. I know there are a couple readers, but there will come a point when I might have to stop posting just because there isn't any interest. This was a good way to document my own results though and think through the testing.