Category | Prediction Rate | % Correct | Notes |
Direction | 15/19 | 79% | 17/19 disregarding minor closing range (losses were 0.30% and 0.65%) |
Range | 10/19 | 53% | 14/19 disregarding minor closing range |
Significant High/Low* | no instances | Testing tomorrow | |
Next Day Gap** | 3/5 | 60% | |
Gap Fill+ | 1/1 | 100% |
** The next day gap determines if the condition correctly predicted the gap.The next day gap test is measuring times the odds of a positive low or negative high were >= 14%.
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.
Tests:
- Since the odds of a significant low tomorrow are over 70%, does the market makes a low lower than -0.5% from today's close?
Tomorrow I will be posting a comprehensive review of my observations about how this information can be incorporated into a trading system.
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