Friday, December 3, 2010

Odds for the Dow on 12/6/2010

Whoops, I deleted my old post. Anyway, the odds for Monday and wave count are shown at the bottom of the table. Based on the close, I suspect Monday could have some more upside but don't be surprised at a reversal intraday, since range was mostly negative. My wave speculation is that we're in the middle of a 5th wave up, either the wave ended today or it will continue into Monday. By 5th wave, please understand that I'm talking about whatever wave we're in during the past few days. I'm not saying this is a 5th wave of a 3rd minute or whatever for the long-term picture...I'm not a wave pro. I'm just saying that we're clearly in an up wave since the market bottomed a few days ago, and based on the alignment of the odds, I think the wave is close to finishing. My wave counts will be more swing trading counts.

HourNext Day OddsCurrent Wave*Next Wave*
9:31 Open

9:50 AM Pre-Data

10:10 AM Post-Data

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

3:50 PM Pre-Close

4:07 PM Close53% up, most frequent range was negative5 of 55 of 5 cont'd
*The timeframe of the wave is more like an hourly timeframe, meaning a wave that will form over the course of 5-10 trading days. Subject to revision intraday.


CategoryPrediction Rate% CorrectNotes
Direction23/3174%26/31 disregarding minor closing range
(losses were 0.30%, 0.65%, 0.20%, 0.22%, -0.85% gains could have been made on 2 of those days)

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