Thursday, November 18, 2010

Odds for the Dow on 11/19/2010

Category Prediction Rate % Correct Notes
Direction 17/21 80% 19/21 disregarding minor closing range
(losses were 0.30% and 0.65%)
Range 10/21 50% 14/21 disregarding minor closing range
Significant High/Low* 1/1 100% Threshold changed to 72%
Next Day Gap** 3/5 60% Testing tomorrow
Gap Fill+ 1/1 100%
* A significant high/low occurs when the market makes a move greater than 0.5%. This test is measuring the following case: If the odds of a significant high/low are >= 72% in either direction, a significant high/low was made the following day.
** The next day gap determines if the condition correctly predicted the gap.The next day gap test is measuring times the odds of a positive low or negative high were >= 14%.
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.

Tomorrow's test is for a gap up, since the odds of a positive low are >= 14%. However, the close is expected to be down. I've changed the "significant high/low" test to a 72% threshold, since it worked well today.

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