Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Sell the News Pricing Pattern

Still on track but certainly not anything dramatic right now. Still need a gap down tomorrow to meet my scenario. (horizontal black line is the close price)

(This is highly speculative, and I have no firm evidence it will occur. In fact, my odds are for an up day tomorrow.)

Let's assume over the next 24 hours that the market displays a classic "sell the news" pattern. We can actually speculate about how that might look. The election results should start coming out around 8-9 PM EST, so that's the first data point. As the results come out, we should see the overnight futures sell off into tomorrow creating a gap down, or at least well off the highs seen as results were coming out. The market should then rise into the QE2 announcement (possibly filling the gap before or on the announcement), then begin selling off shortly after that, probably below where the market was after the election results had firmed up. This could occur into Thursday's session, so the rise in the market could occur towards the end of the day, and the sell off begin in the last 30 mins of tomorrow's session and really pick up on Thursday.

Again, highly speculative and just for my own amusement. If we see a gap down tomorrow (or at least a dramatic drop in overnight futures, from whatever level they were at after election results came out), then maybe it will work out!

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