Monday, November 8, 2010

Odds for the Dow on 11/9/2010

Category Prediction Rate % Correct Notes
Direction 10/13 77% 12/13 disregarding minor closing range
Range 8/13 62% 12/13 disregarding minor closing range
Significant High/Low* no instances
Threshold raised to 70%
Unfilled Gap** 1/2 50%
Next Day Gap** 2/2 100%
Gap Fill+ 1/1 100%
* A significant high/low occurs when the market makes a move greater than 0.5%. This test is measuring the following case: If the odds of a significant high/low are >= 70% in either direction, a significant high/low was made the following day.
** An unfilled gap occurs when the market gaps and never fills. The next day gap determines if the condition correctly predicted the gap.The unfilled gap and next day gap tests are measuring times the odds of a positive low or negative high were >= 14%.
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.

Direction was wrong for today but range was correct. This was the first major failure of direction, however, the range being negative was the clue that the odds were not favorable for an up day despite there being more up days than down days in past history. Overall, the odds table still presents reasonable answers for next day activity.

Today is the opposite of the last two days. We have higher odds of a down day, yet the most frequent range was positive. This doesn't seem to provide any edge for tomorrow. We're starting to see some short-term negative tendencies in the samples, so a down day of some size could be coming soon. The odds of a negative high tomorrow are at 13%, so there is a chance of a gap down that never fills tomorrow, but it doesn't meet the 14% threshold, so I won't test it. If it does come true, I'll lower the threshold to 13%.

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