|Category||Prediction Rate||% Correct||Notes|
|Direction||18/24||75%||20/24 disregarding minor closing range|
(losses were 0.30%, 0.65%, 0.20%, 0.22% gains could have been made on 2 of those days)
|Hypothetical Portfolio||Starting Date||Compounded Return|
|$10,000 starting balance||11/18/2010||+1%||$10,100 balance, profits are reinvested|
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.
Today was a success for the directional prediction. Unfortunately, the range issue clouded my judgment and I failed to take advantage of the down day, but at least I wasn't long!
Tomorrow looks positive. Also note that the day before and after Thanksgiving is seasonally bullish, so a long position seems favorable here. That being said, I only bought a partial position in UPRO. I'm unwilling to put a huge chunk of my money on the line for a trade against the trend. It kind of felt like people were trying to front-run some of this positive seasonality and got trapped in a bad trade today. This could either provide new longs with a great entry, or they'll get snowed again tomorrow. I'm willing to bet with the system for tomorrow, with the understanding that it's only a partial long position (not the full amount I'd normally trade) and that I will take it off if profit targets are met -- for me, it's about a 0.25% gain on the index.