|Category||Prediction Rate||% Correct||Notes|
|Direction||17/23||74%||19/23 disregarding minor closing range|
(losses were 0.30%, 0.65%, 0.20%, 0.22% gains could have been made on 2 of those days)
|Significant High/Low*||1/1||100%||Threshold changed to 72%|
|Hypothetical Portfolio||Starting Date||Compounded Return|
|$10,000 starting balance||11/18/2010||+1%||$10,100 balance, profits are reinvested|
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.
Another failure for the system today, but I wouldn't call it a disaster. We were properly warned that the long side wasn't favorable when I saw that the most frequently occurring range in Friday's table was negative, even though the odds were higher for an up day. That's why I didn't take a trade. So overall, I'd say it worked. Also note that today's low was 1.34%, which again was above my suggested stop level of 1.5%. Imagine if someone was long friday and sold on the lows, they could have gotten nearly everything back by the close.
Tomorrow is the exact opposite -- the most frequently occurring range was positive but the odds were higher for a down day. Another reason to stay away and not get suckered into trading a mixed picture. I'm in cash.