Monday, November 1, 2010

Odds for the Dow on 11/2/2010

Category Prediction Rate % Correct Notes
Direction 6/8 75% 8/8 disregarding minor closing range
Range 6/8 75% 8/8 disregarding minor closing range
Significant High/Low* no instances 0%
Unfilled Gap** 1/2 50%
Next Day Gap** 2/2 100%
Gap Fill+ 1/1 100%
* A significant high/low occurs when the market makes a move greater than 0.5%. This test is measuring the following case: If the odds of a significant high/low are >= 70% in either direction, a significant high/low was made the following day.
** An unfilled gap occurs when the market gaps and never fills. The next day gap determines if the condition correctly predicted the gap.The unfilled gap and next day gap tests are measuring times the odds of a positive low or negative high were >= 14%.
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.

Today fell in the range and direction predicted, although there was range expansion as the market pushed over the 1% mark, which was not apparent in the odds on Friday. Nothing of interest actually happened today, despite the wild trading. The bulls failed to clear resistance and the bears failed to reverse the trend in any meaningful way according to my indicators. The longer the bulls take to break above 11,258 on the Dow, the less likely it becomes however.

The odds tomorrow are tilted positive. If the market gaps down, we'll be testing whether it fills, since the odds of a negative high (runaway gap down) are <=3%. The odds of a significant high are some of the highest I've seen yet, but still not enough to meet the 70% threshold. The alignment here is undoubtedly more bullish than bearish, but also note that there is a 64% chance of a close between -0.5% and 0.5%, so I wouldn't count on big gains on a closing basis.

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