|Category||Prediction Rate||% Correct||Notes|
|Direction||12/15||80%||14/15 disregarding minor closing range|
|Range||9/15||60%||13/15 disregarding minor closing range|
|Significant High/Low*||no instances|
|Unfilled Gap**||1/3||33%||Testing tomorrow|
|Next Day Gap**||2/3||66%||Testing tomorrow|
** An unfilled gap occurs when the market gaps and never fills. The next day gap determines if the condition correctly predicted the gap.The unfilled gap and next day gap tests are measuring times the odds of a positive low or negative high were >= 14%.
+ When the odds of a negative high/pos low <= 3% and the market gaps in the low odds direction, the gap fills.
- Since the odds of a negative high >= 14%, does the market gap down and never fill the gap? NO
- Since the odds of a negative high >= 14%, does the market gap down tomorrow? NO
Looks like a bounce is coming before another (possibly deeper or equivalent) pull-back. I'd look to get short back at the old highs if the odds turn negative again. I'm personally waiting till a sample size of 20 before saying for sure whether this works or not. It appears to be on the right track to get to 20 samples with good results.
- Since the odds of a positive low >= 14%, does the market gap up and never fill the gap?
- Since the odds of a positive low >= 14%, does the market gap up tomorrow?