|Category||Prediction Rate||% Correct|
|Significant High/Low*||no instances|
|Next Day Gap**||2/2||100%|
** An unfilled gap occurs when the market gaps and never fills. The next day gap simply determines if the condition correctly predicted the next day gap. The unfilled gap and next day gap tests are recording times the odds of a positive low or negative high were >= 14%.
Today was a down day in the Dow, so yesterday's prediction about direction and range were wrong, although you could argue the "spirit" of the prediction was correct given that the market was somewhat flat at the close and did open higher by quite a bit. As far as stats, they were wrong.
I'm compiling the stats into a table now. I've added a new category. I'm thinking now that potentially the 14% threshold for significant high/low could be a better predictor of the next day gap, and may or may not indicate whether it fills. So in that case, it's 2/2, but in terms of not filling the gap, it's 1/2. Today did gap up quite a bit, consistent with the prediction yesterday. It filled quickly though.
Tomorrow is tilted negative, although the range looks pretty tight for high/low. Given that the GDP report comes out tomorrow, it's hard to believe there won't be a big move. The vix has now closed above the bollinger band mid-line two days in a row, so I would upgrade that signal to a short signal. That said, none of the price signals have confirmed it, so I can't say the trend has changed yet.