Friday, October 22, 2010

Odds for the Dow on 10/25/2010

Today hit as expected. There was no significant high or low made on the Dow (+/- 0.50% or larger) and the close was in the 0 to -0.50% range. I can tell you right now that this doesn't always work, so don't get too excited. That's the difference between odds and guarantees.

One flaw I see in using it is that it will tend predict a move comparable to whatever just happened in the market. For example, if the market made a huge up move, it's likely to show a positive bias, since most big up moves will have follow through. The problem is at turning points, since at tops or bottoms you get big moves in either direction which probably won't be easily predicted by historical analogs.

I'll keep some stats for my own reference. Here's what I'm measuring.

Direction: The prediction got the direction right based on the odds of an up/down day.

Range: The prediction got the % range correct

Significant high/low: A significant high or low was made in the event the odds were greater than 75% of a significant high/low. A significant high or low means the market moved more than 0.50% in either direction.

Direction: 2/2
Range: 2/2
Signficant High/Low: 2/2

Today's odds show a positive directional bias for Monday with an expected return in the 0 to 0.5% range on a closing basis. There is no prediction of a significant high or low, so Monday could be range bound again. One thing of interest: The odds of a negative high on Monday are elevated (above 10%), which means the odds of a runaway gap down are a little higher than usual. You will see that occur in situations where a big move could occur. A negative high occurs when the market gaps down and never fills the gap.

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