Thursday, October 21, 2010

Odds Table

Here is a simple odds table taking the top 30 historical analogs for the different look back periods to find the next day return. The edge looks like a positive close today. In terms of range, it's all over the map. Notice how the odds of a close under -0.5% is pretty low, so that's at least a signal that today was probably going to be flat to positive.

I guess I could use this to create a single forecast for several days out, although it's difficult in situations like this when the range is spread evenly.

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